Satellites and AI Are Bringing Accountability to Carbon Markets

Microsoft agreed to one of the largest nature-based carbon credit purchases in U.S. history, totaling 18 million tonnes, from Rubicon Carbon, a startup aiming to modernize how these credits are validated. But the real story isn’t the volume. It’s the technology powering the deal.

Rubicon uses satellite imagery and artificial intelligence to monitor forests and land use in near real time. Instead of relying on slow, manual assessments, the platform delivers continuous updates on forest growth, deforestation risks, and land changes. This marks a shift from assumptions to evidence in a market long criticized for opacity.

Microsoft plans to integrate Rubicon’s data into its sustainability software, hoping to raise the standard for environmental reporting and carbon audit integrity.

“This isn’t just monitoring. It’s verification,” said a source close to the project. That kind of proof has been missing in a space frequently questioned for double-counting and vague promises. The lack of trust has held back demand and cast a shadow over corporate climate goals.

Still, the system isn’t perfect. Satellite images vary in quality, carbon registries lack unified standards, and some data, like soil carbon, remains difficult to capture.

But the direction is clear. With regulators and investors demanding better metrics, digital tracking may soon become the baseline. It speeds up credit issuance, builds investor confidence, and gives climate claims more credibility.

The Rubicon-Microsoft partnership could be the beginning of a new chapter. Voluntary carbon markets will still face challenges around permanence and additionality. But without real proof, they may not survive. AI may not fix the planet, but it could finally confirm who is genuinely trying.